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                        <div id="tdi_14" class="tdc-zone"><div class="tdc_zone tdi_15  wpb_row td-pb-row" data-sticky-offset="0" >
<style scoped>.tdi_15{min-height:0}.td-header-mobile-sticky-wrap.td-header-active{opacity:1}.td-header-mobile-sticky-wrap{-webkit-transition:all 0.3s ease-in-out;-moz-transition:all 0.3s ease-in-out;-o-transition:all 0.3s ease-in-out;transition:all 0.3s ease-in-out}@media (max-width:767px){.td-header-mobile-sticky-wrap{transform:translateY(-120%);-webkit-transform:translateY(-120%);-moz-transform:translateY(-120%);-ms-transform:translateY(-120%);-o-transform:translateY(-120%)}.td-header-mobile-sticky-wrap.td-header-active{transform:translateY(0);-webkit-transform:translateY(0);-moz-transform:translateY(0);-ms-transform:translateY(0);-o-transform:translateY(0)}}</style><div id="tdi_16" class="tdc-row stretch_row_1200 td-stretch-content"><div class="vc_row tdi_17  wpb_row td-pb-row tdc-element-style" >
<style scoped>.tdi_17,.tdi_17 .tdc-columns{min-height:0}.tdi_17,.tdi_17 .tdc-columns{display:block}.tdi_17 .tdc-columns{width:100%}.tdi_17:before,.tdi_17:after{display:table}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_17,.tdi_17 .tdc-columns{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-start;align-items:center}.tdi_17 .tdc-columns{width:100%}.tdi_17:before,.tdi_17:after{display:none}@media (min-width:768px){.tdi_17{margin-left:-0px;margin-right:-0px}.tdi_17 .tdc-row-video-background-error,.tdi_17>.vc_column,.tdi_17>.tdc-columns>.vc_column{padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px}}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_17{padding-top:5px!important;padding-bottom:5px!important;position:relative}}</style>
<div class="tdi_16_rand_style td-element-style" ><style>@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_16_rand_style{background-color:#00456e!important}}</style></div><div class="vc_column tdi_19  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span3">
<style scoped>.tdi_19{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-start;align-items:center}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_19>.wpb_wrapper{width:100%;height:100%}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_19{width:10%!important;text-align:left!important}}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_mobile_menu tdi_20 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_20" >
<style>@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_20{margin-left:-20px!important}}</style>
<style>.tdi_20{display:inline-block}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button i{font-size:27px;width:54px;height:54px;line-height:54px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button svg{width:27px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button .tdb-mobile-menu-icon-svg{width:54px;height:54px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button{color:#ffffff}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button svg,.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button svg *{fill:#ffffff}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button:hover{color:#ededed}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button:hover svg,.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button:hover svg *{fill:#ededed}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button i{font-size:25px;width:50px;height:50px;line-height:50px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button svg{width:25px}.tdi_20 .tdb-mobile-menu-button .tdb-mobile-menu-icon-svg{width:50px;height:50px}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><span class="tdb-mobile-menu-button"><i class="tdb-mobile-menu-icon td-icon-mobile"></i></span></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_22  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span6">
<style scoped>.tdi_22{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_22>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_22{width:80%!important}}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_header_logo tdi_23 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_23" >
<style>.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-a,.tdi_23 h1{flex-direction:row;align-items:center;justify-content:center}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-svg-wrap{display:block}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-svg-wrap+.tdb-logo-img-wrap{display:none}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-img-wrap{display:block}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-tagline{margin-top:2px;margin-left:0;display:block}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-title{display:block;color:#ffffff;font-size:40px!important;letter-spacing:-2px!important;}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-wrap{flex-direction:column;align-items:flex-start}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-icon{top:0px;display:block}.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-a:hover .tdb-logo-text-title{color:#eaeaea;background:none;-webkit-text-fill-color:initial;background-position:center center}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-title{font-size:33px!important;}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-title{font-size:28px!important;letter-spacing:-3px!important;}}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_23 .tdb-logo-text-title{font-size:28px!important;}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><a class="tdb-logo-a" href="https://financesnewsonline.com/"><span class="tdb-logo-text-wrap"><span class="tdb-logo-text-title">𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞</span></span></a></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_25  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span3">
<style scoped>.tdi_25{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_25>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_25{width:10%!important}}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_mobile_search tdi_26 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_26" >
<style>.tdi_26{display:inline-block}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob i{font-size:22px;width:55px;height:55px;line-height:55px}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob svg{width:22px}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob .tdb-mobile-search-icon-svg{width:55px;height:55px;display:flex;justify-content:center}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob{color:#ffffff}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob svg,.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob svg *{fill:#ffffff}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob:hover{color:#f2f2f2}@media (max-width:767px){.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob i{font-size:20px;width:50px;height:50px;line-height:50px}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob svg{width:20px}.tdi_26 .tdb-header-search-button-mob .tdb-mobile-search-icon-svg{width:50px;height:50px;display:flex;justify-content:center}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><span class="tdb-header-search-button-mob dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown"><i class="tdb-mobile-search-icon td-icon-search"></i></span></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div></div></div></div></div>                    </div>

                
                    <div class="td-header-desktop-wrap ">
                        <div id="tdi_27" class="tdc-zone"><div class="tdc_zone tdi_28  wpb_row td-pb-row"  >
<style scoped>.tdi_28{min-height:0}.td-header-desktop-wrap{position:relative}</style><div id="tdi_29" class="tdc-row stretch_row_1200 td-stretch-content"><div class="vc_row tdi_30  wpb_row td-pb-row tdc-element-style" >
<style scoped>.tdi_30,.tdi_30 .tdc-columns{min-height:0}.tdi_30,.tdi_30 .tdc-columns{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-start;align-items:center}.tdi_30 .tdc-columns{width:100%}.tdi_30:before,.tdi_30:after{display:none}.tdi_30{padding-top:5px!important;padding-bottom:5px!important;position:relative}.tdi_30 .td_block_wrap{text-align:left}</style>
<div class="tdi_29_rand_style td-element-style" ><style>.tdi_29_rand_style{background-color:#005689!important}</style></div><div class="vc_column tdi_32  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column tdc-restr-display-none td-pb-span3">
<style scoped>.tdi_32{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-start;align-items:center}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_32>.wpb_wrapper{width:100%;height:100%}.tdi_32{width:30%!important}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_header_date tdi_33 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_33" >
<style>.tdb_header_date{margin-bottom:0;clear:none}.tdb_header_date .tdb-block-inner{display:flex;align-items:baseline}.tdb_header_date .tdb-head-date-txt{font-family:var(--td_default_google_font_1,'Open Sans','Open Sans Regular',sans-serif);font-size:11px;line-height:1;color:#000}.tdi_33{display:inline-block}.tdi_33 .tdb-head-date-txt{color:#ffffff;font-size:15px!important;font-weight:600!important}@media (min-width:1019px) and (max-width:1140px){.tdi_33 .tdb-head-date-txt{font-size:14px!important}}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_33 .tdb-head-date-txt{font-size:11px!important}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><div class="tdb-head-date-txt">Wednesday, September 30, 2026</div></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_35  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column tdc-restr-display-none td-pb-span3">
<style scoped>.tdi_35{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:block}.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_35>.wpb_wrapper{width:auto;height:auto}.tdi_35{width:40%!important}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_header_logo tdi_36 td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_36" >
<style>.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-a,.tdi_36 h1{flex-direction:row;align-items:center;justify-content:center}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-svg-wrap{display:block}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-svg-wrap+.tdb-logo-img-wrap{display:none}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-img-wrap{display:block}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-text-tagline{margin-top:2px;margin-left:0;display:block}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-text-title{display:block;color:#ffffff;font-size:43px!important;letter-spacing:-2px!important;}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-text-wrap{flex-direction:column;align-items:flex-start}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-icon{top:0px;display:block}.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-a:hover .tdb-logo-text-title{color:#eaeaea;background:none;-webkit-text-fill-color:initial;background-position:center center}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_36 .tdb-logo-text-title{font-size:30px!important;}}</style><div class="tdb-block-inner td-fix-index"><a class="tdb-logo-a" href="https://financesnewsonline.com/"><span class="tdb-logo-text-wrap"><span class="tdb-logo-text-title">𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞</span></span></a></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div><div class="vc_column tdi_38  wpb_column vc_column_container tdc-column td-pb-span6">
<style scoped>.tdi_38{vertical-align:baseline}.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper,.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{display:flex;flex-direction:row;flex-wrap:nowrap;justify-content:flex-end;align-items:flex-end}.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper>.tdc-elements{width:100%}.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper>.vc_row_inner{width:auto}.tdi_38>.wpb_wrapper{width:100%;height:100%}.tdi_38{width:30%!important}@media(min-width:1141px){.tdi_38{display:inline-block!important}}</style><div class="wpb_wrapper" ><div class="tdm_block td_block_wrap tdm_block_socials tdi_39 tdm-content-horiz-left td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_39" >
<style>.tdi_39{margin-right:10px!important;margin-bottom:10px!important;padding-top:-!important}</style>
<style>.tdm_block.tdm_block_socials{margin-bottom:0}.tdm-social-wrapper{*zoom:1}.tdm-social-wrapper:before,.tdm-social-wrapper:after{display:table;content:'';line-height:0}.tdm-social-wrapper:after{clear:both}.tdm-social-item-wrap{display:inline-block}.tdm-social-item{position:relative;display:inline-block;vertical-align:middle;-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s;text-align:center;-webkit-transform:translateZ(0);transform:translateZ(0)}.tdm-social-item i{font-size:14px;color:var(--td_theme_color,#4db2ec);-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s}.tdm-social-text{display:none;margin-top:-1px;vertical-align:middle;font-size:13px;color:var(--td_theme_color,#4db2ec);-webkit-transition:all 0.2s;transition:all 0.2s}.tdm-social-item-wrap:hover i,.tdm-social-item-wrap:hover .tdm-social-text{color:#000}.tdm-social-item-wrap:last-child .tdm-social-text{margin-right:0!important}</style>
<style>.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i{font-size:13px;vertical-align:middle;line-height:19.5px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-linkedin,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-pinterest,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-blogger,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-vimeo{font-size:10.4px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item{width:19.5px;height:19.5px;margin:5px 10px 5px 0}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item-wrap:last-child .tdm-social-item{margin-right:0!important}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i,.tds-team-member2 .tdi_40.tds-social1 .tdm-social-item i{color:#ffffff}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item-wrap:hover i,.tds-team-member2 .tdi_40.tds-social1 .tdm-social-item:hover i{color:#4db2ec}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-text{display:none;margin-left:2px;margin-right:18px;color:#ffffff;font-family:Merriweather Sans!important;font-size:12px!important}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item-wrap:hover .tdm-social-text{color:#4db2ec}@media (min-width:768px) and (max-width:1018px){.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i{font-size:11px;vertical-align:middle;line-height:16.5px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-linkedin,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-pinterest,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-blogger,.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item i.td-icon-vimeo{font-size:8.8px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-item{width:16.5px;height:16.5px}.tdi_40 .tdm-social-text{font-size:11px!important}}</style><div class="tdm-social-wrapper tds-social1 tdi_40"><div class="tdm-social-item-wrap"><a href="#"  title="Facebook" class="tdm-social-item"><i class="td-icon-font td-icon-facebook"></i><span style="display: none">Facebook</span></a></div><div class="tdm-social-item-wrap"><a href="#"  title="Instagram" class="tdm-social-item"><i class="td-icon-font td-icon-instagram"></i><span style="display: none">Instagram</span></a></div><div class="tdm-social-item-wrap"><a href="#"  title="Linkedin" class="tdm-social-item"><i class="td-icon-font td-icon-linkedin"></i><span style="display: none">Linkedin</span></a></div><div class="tdm-social-item-wrap"><a href="#"  title="Twitter" class="tdm-social-item"><i class="td-icon-font td-icon-twitter"></i><span style="display: none">Twitter</span></a></div></div></div><div class="td_block_wrap tdb_header_search tdi_41 tdb-header-search-trigger-enabled td-pb-border-top td_block_template_1 tdb-header-align"  data-td-block-uid="tdi_41" >
<style>.tdi_41{justify-content:flex-end!important;text-align:right!important}</style>
<style>.tdb_module_header{width:100%;padding-bottom:0}.tdb_module_header .td-module-container{display:flex;flex-direction:column;position:relative}.tdb_module_header .td-module-container:before{content:'';position:absolute;bottom:0;left:0;width:100%;height:1px}.tdb_module_header .td-image-wrap{display:block;position:relative;padding-bottom:70%}.tdb_module_header .td-image-container{position:relative;width:100%;flex:0 0 auto}.tdb_module_header .td-module-thumb{margin-bottom:0}.tdb_module_header .td-module-meta-info{width:100%;margin-bottom:0;padding:7px 0 0 0;z-index:1;border:0 solid #eaeaea;min-height:0}.tdb_module_header .entry-title{margin:0;font-size:13px;font-weight:500;line-height:18px}.tdb_module_header .td-post-author-name,.tdb_module_header .td-post-date,.tdb_module_header .td-module-comments{vertical-align:text-top}.tdb_module_header .td-post-author-name,.tdb_module_header .td-post-date{top:3px}.tdb_module_header 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aria-label="Buscar"><span>Buscar</span></button></div></form><div class="tdb-aj-search"></div></div></div><a href="#" role="button" aria-label="Buscar" class="tdb-head-search-btn dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown"><i class="tdb-search-icon td-icon-search"></i></a></div></div> <!-- ./block --></div></div></div></div><div id="tdi_42" class="tdc-row stretch_row_1400 td-stretch-content"><div class="vc_row tdi_43  wpb_row td-pb-row tdc-element-style" >
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                                        alt="Explicó la última trama de puntos de la Reserva Federal, y lo que dice sobre los recortes de tasas de interés" title="Explicó la última trama de puntos de la Reserva Federal, y lo que dice sobre los recortes de tasas de interés" 
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<div id="block_20bd1cb52509e7918d2efa712cc426c7" class="key-takeaways sm:border-l-4 border-(var(--accent)) sm:pl-8 my-8 relative" style="--accent: var(--color-blue-medium)">
    <!-- htmlmin:ignore --></p>
<h2 class="heading-4 mt-0 mb-4 text-crop-none max-sm:flex max-sm:items-center max-sm:gap-4">
    <span class="shrink-0">Control de zancadilla</span><br />
        <span class="max-sm:h-0.5 max-sm:w-full max-sm:w-full max-sm:bg-(var(--accent)) max-sm:rounded-full max-sm:block"></span><br />
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<li class="pl-4 relative before:content-('•') before:right-full before:absolute before:text-(var(--accent))">
<p>                                                            La trama DOT de la Fed es una tabla que registra la proyección de cada funcionario de la Fed para la tasa de interés esencia a corto plazo del Costado Central.
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<p>                                                            La trama DOT se actualiza cada tres meses y está destinado a proporcionar información sobre las decisiones de tarifas futuras de la Fed, con la advertencia de que los funcionarios de la Fed no siempre pueden predecir el futuro.
                                                </li>
<li class="pl-4 relative before:content-('•') before:right-full before:absolute before:text-(var(--accent))">
<p>                                                            Las últimas proyecciones de la Fed continúan señalando dos cortaduras de velocidad para 2025.</p>
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<p>Posteriormente de la última osadía de tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal, puede sentirse tentado a intentar comenzar a conectar algunos puntos.</p>
<p>Esto se debe a que los banqueros centrales de EE. UU. Actualizaron su &#8220;recopilación de las proyecciones económicas&#8221; (sep) en su reunión de marzo, que incluye un cuadro que muchos observadores de la Fed se obsesionan: la &#8220;trama de puntos&#8221;. Este representación indica a los consumidores cuando cada funcionario de la Fed ve tasas de interés en el futuro, y la última modernización revela que los responsables políticos aún esperan ceñir los costos de los préstamos dos veces en 2025.</p>
<p>Pero a pesar de que parece comparable a echar un vistazo a los números ganadores de la rifa, ayudándole a predecir buenos movimientos de patrimonio, como cuando podría ser un buen momento para financiar una adquisición o cercar un certificado de depósito (CD), aún debe proceder con precaución. Muchos expertos, incluidos los miembros de la Fed, han cuestionado el poder predictivo de esta utensilio. Las proyecciones de los funcionarios de la Fed nunca se establecen en piedra, y podrían continuar evolucionando a medida que entra más información sobre la inflación y el mercado gremial entra.</p>
<p>Aquí está todo lo que necesita aprender sobre la trama DOT, incluida lo que es, cómo leerla y por qué es posible que desee pensar críticamente al respecto.</p>
<h2 id="what-is-the-fed-s-dot-plot" data-beam-element-viewed="" data-id="br-h2-second-onpage-placement" data-type="h2" data-location="Banking, Federal Reserve" data-position="h2_second_placement" data-name="h2_second_placement" data-text="The Fed’s dot plot, explained" data-outcome="">¿Cuál es la trama de puntos de la Fed?</h2>
<p>La trama DOT de la Fed es un cuadro actualizado trimestralmente que registra la proyección de cada funcionario de la Fed para la tasa de interés esencia a corto plazo del tira central, la tasa de fondos federales. Los puntos reflejan lo que cada banquero central de los Estados Unidos cree que será el punto medio apropiado de la tasa de fondos de la Fed al final de cada año calendario.</p>
<p>La Fed generalmente actualiza sus proyecciones al final de cada trimestre, a partir de marzo, seguido de junio, septiembre y luego diciembre. Las proyecciones de la Fed de Marcha y Junio ​​se extienden durante los próximos dos primaveras, mientras que la Fed comienza a estimar las tasas en un tercer año en sus actualizaciones de septiembre y diciembre.</p>
<p>Los funcionarios todavía proporcionan un punto para la ejecución más larga, lo que representa la citación &#8220;tasa de interés impreciso&#8221;, o el punto en que se cree que las tasas no estimulan ni restringen el crecimiento financiero.</p>
<p>Sin incautación, cuando la peculio estadounidense parece extraordinariamente incierta, los funcionarios pueden optar por no anunciar nuevas proyecciones. Las autoridades en marzo de 2020, por ejemplo, no actualizaron sus estimaciones de tarifas en su cadencia habitual porque el impacto de la pandemia parecía incognoscible.</p>
<p>Cada punto representa a un funcionario de la Fed, desde el presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, o el autoridad de la Fed Christopher Waller hasta Nueva York, el presidente de la Fed, John Williams, y el presidente de la Fed de Chicago, Austan Goolsbee. Cuando la Reserva Federal cuenta con el personal, la trama DOT tiene 19 proyecciones individuales. Por supuesto, todo se mantiene en el anonimato, y nadie sabe qué oficial es qué punto. La mayoría de los observadores de la Fed se centran en el punto mediano de la Fed como la proyección de relato del Comité Federal de Mercado Rajado (FOMC).</p>
<p>En el eje Y está la tasa de fondos de la Fed, y en el eje X está el año en que los funcionarios dieron su pronóstico.</p>
<h2 id="key-benefits-of-reading-the-fed-s-dot-plot">Beneficios esencia de observar la trama DOT de la Fed</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"></figure>
<p>La trama DOT de la Fed puede ayudar a Clue Fed Watchers sobre cómo el comité está reaccionando a los últimos datos económicos. Incluso puede indicar dónde están comenzando a converger.</p>
<p>Las nuevas proyecciones de la Fed muestran que la viejo proporción de funcionarios de la Fed, nueve formuladores de políticas, esperan ceñir los costos de endeudamiento dos veces en 2025. Sin incautación, dos funcionarios ahora ven tres cortaduras, cuatro funcionarios ahora ven un retazo y otros cuatro ahora esperan dejar las tasas de interés sin cambios durante todo el año. Eso es menos agresivo que las estimaciones anteriores de la Fed en diciembre, cuando solo un funcionario esperaba dejar los costos de los préstamos solo y se paciencia que dos responsables políticos reduzcan las tasas cuatro o cinco veces.</p>
<p>Analizar este cuadro puede sonar desalentador, pero los estadounidenses pueden usar estas estimaciones para inferir cuánto tiempo los planes de la Fed para sustentar altas las tasas de interés, movimientos que aumentan los rendimientos en las cuentas de reducción y mantienen los costos de los préstamos caros en casi cualquier tipo de producto, desde una polímero de crédito hasta un préstamo de caudal domiciliario. </p>
<h3>Lo que dicen las proyecciones de la Fed sobre la inflación, el mercado gremial y la peculio</h3>
<p>El SEP de la Fed todavía presagia una estimación de cuerda de saco de lo que los funcionarios de la Fed esperan para la peculio.</p>
<p>La Fed utiliza el índice de gastos de consumo personal (PCE) del Área de Comercio para determinar cuántos precios son que su objetivo del 2 por ciento. Se paciencia que su contador preferido aumente en un 2.7 por ciento en el cuarto trimestre de 2024 desde hace un año, por encima de las estimaciones del 2.5 por ciento del posterior trimestre, muestran las nuevas proyecciones de la Fed. Excluyendo alimentos y energía, mientras tanto, los precios &#8220;centrales&#8221; podrían alcanzar un 2.8 por ciento durante el mismo período, por encima de la proyección del 2.5 por ciento del posterior trimestre.</p>
<p>Mientras tanto, se paciencia que la tasa de desempleo aumente a 4.4 por ciento en 2025, incluso más ingreso que su nivel flagrante del 4.1 por ciento. Se paciencia que la peculio estadounidense crezca un 1,7 por ciento en 2024, por debajo del 2.1 por ciento en las estimaciones anteriores de la Fed.</p>
<p>Esas proyecciones ayudan a explicar por qué los funcionarios de la Fed todavía esperan ceñir los costos de los préstamos, incluso cuando la inflación parece en peligro de ascender aún más. Powell dijo durante la conferencia de prensa posterior a la reunión de la Fed que el crecimiento más débil fue trillado como &#8220;compensación&#8221; parte de la inflación que los funcionarios ven principalmente de los aranceles. </p>
<h2 id="the-downside-of-the-fed-s-dot-plot">La desventaja de la trama de puntos de la Fed</h2>
<p>Pero hay advertencias obvias. Para entablar, el futuro nunca evoluciona exactamente como paciencia la Fed. Caso en cuestión: la Fed en diciembre de 2021 se acumuló en un rango objetivo de 0.75-1 por ciento para su tasa de relato esencia para fines de 2022. Las tasas terminarían aumentando a 4.25-4.5 por ciento.</p>
<p>A medida que avanzan en los futuros funcionarios, más difícil todavía será para ellos predecir lo que le sucederá a la peculio estadounidense. En diciembre de 2020, cuando la peculio estadounidense todavía estaba en la trinchera de la recesión inducida por la pandemia del coronavirus y antiguamente de que la inflación se convirtiera en una clara amenaza, la mayoría de los funcionarios vieron tasas que se mantuvieron en casi cero por ciento hasta finales de 2023.</p>
<p>Sin mencionar que los formuladores de políticas nunca se acoplaron en proyecciones para una tasa de interés de Rock Bottom 0-0.25 por ciento para 2020 cuando actualizaron sus pronósticos en diciembre de 2019, simplemente porque nunca habían imaginado que una pandemia total podría cursar a la peculio a conmocionar.</p>
<p>&#8220;Debe memorar con la trama de DOT que este es, en muchos sentidos, el escena del caso saco de los funcionarios, si todo se desarrolla de la modo que esperan&#8221;, dice Sarah House, directora regente y economista senior de Wells Fargo. &#8220;Más que falta, está cambiando muy rápidamente&#8221;.</p>
<h2 id="why-the-dot-plot-was-created">Por qué se creó la trama de puntos</h2>
<p>Los funcionarios de la Fed comenzaron a usar la trama DOT en 2012 en un momento en que la peculio todavía se estaba recuperando de la gran recesión y cuando las tasas de interés aún eran casi cero.</p>
<p>Era una forma de &#8220;lazarillo agresiva con destino a delante&#8221;, un concepto que el ex presidente Ben Bernanke creó para preparar los mercados para el movimiento de la Fed allá de las medidas de apoyo no convencionales que introdujo para sustentar a flote a la peculio, según Ryan Sweet, economista patriarca de Oxford Economics.</p>
<p>La utensilio reconoce cuán poderosa puede ser la comunicación de la Fed para adiestrar la actividad económica. Si la Fed ha presagiado adecuadamente sus planes de tarifas, los mercados financieros ya habrán fijado un precio en un movimiento para cuando positivamente ocurra, lo que afectan los costos de endeudamiento que los consumidores pagan. En otras palabras, las tarifas no tienen que esperar a que la Fed comience a avanzar.</p>
<p>Tomemos las tasas hipotecarias, por ejemplo. La hipoteca promedio de tasa fija a 30 primaveras fue de 3.28 por ciento cuando la Fed señaló oficialmente en su parcela de puntos de diciembre de 2021 que planeó aumentar las tasas de interés en el próximo año. Pero para cuando la Fed siguió oficialmente con ese aumento de la tasa, la tasa promedio ya había aumentado 1.14 puntos porcentuales a 4.4 por ciento, según los datos de Bankrate. Eso coincidió con un rápido aumento en el rendimiento del Caudal a 10 primaveras, ya que los mercados financieros comenzaron a fijar el precio en la perspectiva de una inflación más caliente y tasas más altas.</p>
<h2 id="too-much-focus-on-the-dot-plot">Por qué es posible que no quieras centrarte demasiado en la trama de puntos mientras la Fed lucha contra la inflación</h2>
<p>El propio Powell ha cuestionado la utilidad de los puntos de su comité. En las notas al pie de un prueba del Congreso de 2019 de 2019, Powell incluyó una foto de la famosa pintura de Seurat &#8220;una tarde de domingo en la isla de La Holgado Jatte&#8221; que estaba tan ampliada, se distorsionó.</p>
<p>&#8220;Como puede ver, si está demasiado concentrado en algunos puntos, puede perderse el panorama militar&#8221;, dijo, demostrando lo que llamó una &#8220;historia de advertencia&#8221; sobre observar las parcelas de puntos de la Fed como evangelio.</p>
<p>Las apuestas de malinterpretar los planes de tarifas de la Fed pueden ser aún mayores esta vez. La peculio, y más específicamente la inflación, está guiando las decisiones de tasa de interés de la Fed. Si la Fed reduce las tasas de interés este año depende de si las presiones de precios se enfrían tanto como esperan los responsables políticos.</p>
<p>Powell ha trillado que los funcionarios quieren tener flexibilidad, ser &#8220;dependiente de los datos&#8221; y replicar a la nueva información a medida que entra. Pero ser enormemente reaccionarios medios que los pronósticos probablemente cambiarán, posiblemente, lo que significa que cada punto tiene una momento de vencimiento rápida.</p>
<p>&#8220;Para pender de más datos, la Fed necesita mucha flexibilidad&#8221;, dice Sweet. &#8220;La trama del DOT no es un pronóstico. No es un compromiso. Las proyecciones de tasas de interés cambian a medida que cambia la peculio, a medida que cambian los desarrollos en los mercados financieros. La trama de puntos se anticipa con asaz presteza&#8221;.</p>
<p>Powell dijo en una dirección de marzo de 2019 que el representación &#8220;puede ser un hábitat constructivo de comunicación política integral&#8221; si se entiende adecuadamente.</p>
<p>La trama del DOT aumenta la transparencia sobre las operaciones de la Fed, según Julia Coronado, presidenta y fundadora de Macropolicy Perspectives, que solía trabajar para la Unión de Gobernadores de la Fed.</p>
<p>&#8220;La Fed siente que positivamente necesita explicar y documentar por qué está haciendo lo que está haciendo&#8221;, dice Coronado. &#8220;Pero eso no significa que sea útil para el conocido o para los mercados. Puede ser confuso y puede ser engañoso&#8221;.</p>
<p>El conocido todavía tiene la oportunidad de ver la escala completa de vistas en el FOMC. Los presidentes regionales que no tienen un voto, por ejemplo, pueden ingresar sus proyecciones de tasas. Pero eso a menudo puede significar que hay más ruido que señal. Cada punto refleja un movimiento de tarifa en el que el comité no ha llegado a un consenso, y cada fabricante de políticas podría tener un pronóstico de relato diferente que los condujo a esa suposición.</p>
<p>&#8220;¿Eso positivamente transmite información útil? Eso es muy discutible&#8221;, dice Jonathan Wright, profesor de peculio en la Universidad Johns Hopkins. &#8220;Algunas personas piensan que solo crea confusión o una señal mixta&#8221;.</p>
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<!-- sc5a72ec-3dd082 -->

<div><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.pragmaticplay.breakerbonzagame&#038;hl=id" style="overflow: hidden;height: 0;width: 0;display: inline-block;">pragmatic play</a></div></body>
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